BCBC In The News
Business in Vancouver: Tech sector looks to lure Alberta talent to BC
[EXCERPT] B.C. has experienced a net loss of about 42,000 people over the past two decades with about half of those moving to Alberta, according to a May 2014 report from the Business Council of BC (BCBC). In the last two years alone, 7,500 of those people were in the 15-to-24, 25-to-34 and 35-to-44 age groups.
BCBC economist and report co-author Ken Peacock said that after years of strain on the B.C. labour market, the province can “almost certainly” count on a large number of those people returning from Alberta.
He noted the workers essentially fall into two categories: those who have moved with their families across the Rockies or interprovincial employees who work in Alberta for extended periods while technically residing in B.C.
Peacock said it may be trickier to bring back people who’ve already uprooted their families once, but a high-tech worker doing contract work would be a good example of someone who would move back.
Business in Vancouver: Economic council predicts 2.6% real GDP growth for BC in 2015
B.C.’s Economic Forecast Council predicts real GDP growth to be 2.6% in 2015 — down slightly from its December estimate of 2.7%.
The council also announced Thursday (February 5) it expects real GDP growth to hit 2.8% in 2016, an uptick of 0.1% from its previous estimate. The 2017-19 outlook remains at 2.5%.
It is quite fascinating right now,” Business Council of B.C. economist Ken Peacock told Business In Vancouver.
He said 2.6% is a fairly average performance but “that pace could very well lead all of the provinces in Canada.”
Peacock noted oil-producing provinces like Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Newfoundland and Labrador will be hit by slow growth this year.
Castanet: Skills gap costing BC billions
A new report by the Conference Board of Canada shows skills shortages cost the B.C. economy up to $6 billion in foregone GDP and $785 million in tax revenues annually.
It's projected there will be one million job openings in the province by 2022 and 760,000 of those jobs will require some kind of specialized training. Without a focus to meet that demand, the labour force will reach a point where demand outstrips supply by 2019, the report states.
Many of those unfilled jobs or mismatched skills are in the trades, but not all.
Greg D'Avignon of the Business Council of British Columbia says those jobs will be in technology, software engineering, but also in middle management, transportation and tourism as well as forestry and mining.
"That runs the gamut from engineers to environmental technologists, pipe fitters and journeymen," he says.
Business in Vancouver: Drop in Canadian dollar spells upswing for BC forestry industry
Consumers may not like paying higher prices for some goods in stores but the Loonie’s recent fall is getting B.C.’s forestry sector poised for major growth in 2015.
Business Council of B.C. economist Ken Peacock said the recent decline in the Canadian dollar, which was sitting at 80.5 cents U.S. Thursday morning (February 5), makes exports south of the border even more enticing for Americans as U.S. housing starts grow.
Vancouver Sun, Vaughn Palmer: Provincial finances are on an even keel, minister assures
[EXCERPT] The prospective good news on the retail front was borne out by the latest analysis from the Business Council of B.C., which calculated that “the average B.C. household will save more than $500” if the recent drop in gasoline prices were to be sustained over a full year.
“On an economywide basis, this translates into more than $1 billion in consumer savings, most of which will be spent on other goods and services,” wrote council economists Jock Finlayson and Ken Peacock.
Nanaimo Business News: BC Business Council predicts decent level of growth
Developed by the Business Council of BC, the recently released BC Economic Review and Outlook is a document that analyzes some of the most important elements of BC’s current economic performance, such as employment figures, investment trends and export levels. Council analysts than take that information to forecast where the provincial economy will be going in the coming months. The group’s conclusion for 2015 is that despite a troubled and turbulent world, the BC economy is poised for a decent level of growth this year.
Globe and Mail: Vancouver housing market booming as BC reaps gain of Alberta residents
[EXCERPT] Jock Finlayson, executive vice-president of the Business Council of British Columbia, predicts that a continued influx of immigrants from overseas and low interest rates will be key drivers behind the Vancouver area’s housing market this year, with interprovincial migration providing an extra boost to population growth.
The lower loonie could also make Vancouver more attractive for buyers from countries such as China and the United States.
British Columbia posted a net gain of more than 37,000 people from other countries and nearly 7,500 residents from other provinces in the first nine months of 2014, according to preliminary data. The number of newcomers to B.C. in those first nine months has already exceeded original forecasts for the full 12 months of 2014.
Mr. Finlayson said that given the robust housing demand, the market will stay healthy this year in Metro Vancouver, especially for detached properties, but the question is: How high will prices go? “We’re pushing at the outer limits of conceivable pricing,” he said.
CKNW: Despite falling loonie, economists predict growth in BC
The BC Business Council says falling oil prices and a lower Canadian dollar are good for B.C.
Chief policy officer Jock Finlayson says lower prices at the pump will help the economy grow by 2.6 percent this year, in part because of extra cash in consumers’ pockets.
“Over a billion dollars we estimate if current low oil prices persist for the year, over a billion dollars of additional spending power for B.C. consumers, most of which will be spent on other goods and services in the local marketplace.”
The Business Council’s economic outlook for 2015 also says the falling loonie will boost exports and tourism.
CBC News: Cross-border shopping trips plummet, along with dollar
[EXCERPT] Ken Peacock from the Business Council of B.C. says in 2012 cross-border shopping meant a loss of more than $1 billion to the province.
"I have heard anecdotes about Bellis Fair and other retailers down there being concerned and lamenting the drop in the currency."
"Winners will be some of the B.C. retailers in the Lower Mainland and those along the border."
Vancouver Sun: Lower oil prices, dollar to fuel growth in BC, report says
British Columbia is poised to be a top economic performer in Canada, with lower oil prices working to the province's advantage, according to a report by the Business Council of B.C. Real GDP growth is expected to rise from 2.3 per cent in 2014 to 2.6 per cent in 2015 and 3.1 per cent in 2016. Unemployment is expected to drop from 6.1 per cent in 2014 to six per cent.
CKNW: Plummeting oil prices bring increased fallout
As the Petroleum Services Association of Canada downgrades its drilling forecast for the year by almost 25%, and some oil companies begin to reduce their workforce, the BC Business Council projects more fall out from plummeting oil prices.
Chief economist Ken Peacock says up to 35,000 British Columbians work in Alberta.
He thinks Premier Christy Clark’s plan to advertise in Fort McMurray for workers to come home could be a success.
“British Columbia can attract some workers back for large projects, potentially LNG projects, bee it Site C or other major investments here in British Columbia, that would be a benefit.”
Journal of Commerce: VIDEO - Economist Jock Finlayson at the January ACEC BC Economic Forecase
Finlayson explained how the current decline in oil prices may actually be beneficial to British Columbia's economy, since the province produces very little oil. He also cautioned that if oil prices continue to decline or plateau, ambitious liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects would likely fall by the wayside.
Vancouver Sun: BC income growth worst in Canada: analysis
[EXCERPT] But Jock Finlayson said the StatsCan data dug up by the Broadbent Institute offers an important new perspective, particularly since it provides regional comparisons and looks at median — the midway point of all incomes — rather than average employment incomes, which are skewed upwards due to a small number of high earners.
“I think it is newsworthy,” said Finlayson, executive vice-president and chief policy officer at the Business Council of B.C.
Finlayson also said the release is timely because policy analysts have struggled to get a handle on incomes due to the government’s controversial switch from the mandatory long-form census to the voluntary National Household Survey in 2011.
The income figures produced by StatsCan exclude earnings from pensions, investments and government social programs.
Finlayson cited several reasons to explain why B.C. and Ontario were weak performers over the six years:
- Neither are major oil producers and therefore missed out on the oil-related boom.
- Both lost many jobs in key sectors, B.C. in forestry and Ontario in manufacturing.
- Both provinces take more immigrants than other provinces, and immigrants — particularly those who arrive during a recession — tend to make less money.
Journal of Commerce: US recovery to boost BC and Canada
British Columbia's economy is going to grow, but slowly and cautiously.
That was the message from Jock Finlayson, chief policy officer at the Business Council of British Columbia.
He presented the council's economic forecast for 2015 and 2016 to the Associated Consulting Engineers of B.C. (ACEC-BC) last week.
Vancouver Sun Editorial: Slumping oil prices mostly good news for BC
[EXCERPT] Overall, B.C. is poised to be a net beneficiary of declining crude prices. As Business Council of B.C. chief economist Ken Peacock noted last week: “This is a positive macro economic benefit that will help lift B.C.’s. economy in 2015.”
Business in Vancouver: Bank of Canada responds to plunge in oil prices by cutting overnight rate
[EXCERPT] Business Council of BC economist Jock Finlayson said while this move is not positive for Canada as a whole, there is a “slight net positive” for British Columbia.
“That will be good news for a lot of people in B.C. because of the high levels of household debt and the large mortgages that people carry on their balance sheets – unless you are a saver,” Finlayson said.
“If you are living off your savings, it’s a different picture.”
“The decision has been taken because the global economic outlook has softened and the Canadian economic outlook has deteriorated, so one has to be careful using the term ‘good news,’” he said. “Having said that, the impact of the decision itself, in isolation, will be slightly positive from a B.C. macroeconomic point of view.
“But it’s not transformational. It’s a small measure.”
Overall, Finlayson said he isn’t surprised by the Bank of Canada’s move, given the global economic situation, but he acknowledged that the announcement took the markets by surprise.
Business in Vancouver: How low can oil go and who gets hurt?
[EXCERPT] "The whole thing about this is, ‘How low for how long?’” said Ken Peacock, chief economist and vice-president of the Business Council of British Columbia.
“It’s generally good for B.C., but there is this new little wrinkle in the B.C. context, and that’s if it results in [LNG] projects being delayed or maybe even not going ahead.
“If oil prices hit $50, and then turn around and start to climb and this is a short-term thing, that’s a very, very different world than if oil prices stay low for two years.”
Business in Vancouver: Falling oil prices could put $1.5 billion in BC pockets
[EXCERPT] "For B.C., it’s a net positive,” said Ken Peacock, chief economist for the Business Council of British Columbia. “When gas prices drop like they have, it’s a direct savings for families and households, and that gives them more money to spend, and that boosts the economy.”
Vancouver Sun, Pete McMartin: Lessons for BC from Alberta
[EXCERPT] “If LNG comes to fruition in a significant way,” wrote B.C. Business Council executive director Jock Finlayson in an email to me, “let’s not repeat Alberta’s mistake by ‘spending/consuming’ virtually all of the economic rents associated with producing LNG. A substantial portion of such rents should be saved and invested for future generations.”
“It is tempting at times,” wrote Finlayson, “to envy a jurisdiction like Alberta that is endowed with vast resource wealth, the exploitation of which has made them the richest province in the country. But because Alberta’s economic success is so inextricably tied to a single economic sector, it is in some respects in a very fragile and vulnerable position. The multi-decade oil and gas boom, interrupted at times by periods of falling prices, has made Alberta wealthy, but a case can be made that it also gave birth to a somewhat distorted economy in which labour costs, other business costs, and even public sector costs have been driven up across the board by high levels of activity and outsized paycheques in the energy patch.”
CBC Television: Ken Peacock on oil prices
BCBC Chief Economist Ken Peacock discusses declining oil prices with Andrew Chang on the CBC Vancouver evening newscast.